Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change     

Ulrike Gabriele Kobler  Martin Schmid 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2676-2690

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.  相似文献   

A method for evaluating the longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system and its application in China     

Yeling Liu  Baoshan Cui  Jizeng Du  Qing Wang  Shuling Yu  Wei Yang 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5278-5297

The longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system (RLMS) refers to the actual water-mediated transport of material from upstream to downstream areas along a spatial gradient and is fundamental to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. However, due to a lack of consensus on appropriate data and methods, the quantification of connectivity is still a challenge, especially at the catchment scale. We developed a new method to evaluate longitudinal functional connectivity based on fluxes of materials (water, sediment, and chemicals) along a RLMS. The calculation of fluxes is based on the longitudinal pattern of terrain gradient, which influences transport efficiency, and on contributions from hillslopes, which set the initial spatial template of material loading to the RLMS. We evaluate the contributions from hillslopes to RLMS based on a new modified version of the index of sediment connectivity (IC) proposed by Borselli et al. (2008) and revised by Chartin et al. (2017).We applied this method to the Baiyangdian Basin covering an area of 3.4 × 10⁴ km² in China and quantified longitudinal functional connectivity during normal, wet, and dry periods(April, July and December) in year 2016. We found that areas with good structural connectivity exhibited poor functional connectivity during the normal and dry periods. Modelling testing with discharge data from hydrological stations and measured chemicals from Baiyangdian Lake was satisfactory in test periods. We conclude that public data and Digital Elevation Model-derived information can be used to reliably map the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs. The proposed method provides a useful tool for monitoring and restoring the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs and our results indicate that efforts aimed at restoring functional connectivity in RLMSs should take into account landscape patterns that can greatly influence fluxes in the watershed.  相似文献   

Lakes of the Jom-Bolok Volcanoes Valley in the East Sayan Mts., Baikal region     

Shchetnikov  Alexander  Bezrukova  Elena V. 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(11):1823-1840

Journal of Geographical Sciences - This article describes the lake basins of the Jom-Bolok volcanic region in the East Sayan (the largest manifestation of the Holocene eruptions in Central Asia)....  相似文献   

A Raman investigation on the boron form occurring in salt lake brine during evaporation          下载免费PDF全文

彭姣玉  陈婧  王兴鹏  董亚萍  李武 《盐湖研究》2019,27(1)

Boron resources are abundant in Da Qaidam salt lake of Qaidamu Basin. It has been given great attention for the polyborate species present in brine. In this study, the Raman spectroscopy was applied to investigate the existing-form of boron in brine during evaporation. The prepared solutions of MgO·2B2O3-H2O, MgO·2B2O3-MgCl2 -H2O, and MgO·2B2O3-MgSO4-H2O was also evaporated and recorded to study the influence of boron concentration, pH, and electrolytes on the borate speciation in brine. The mononborates of B(OH)3 and B(OH)4- were found to be the only forms present in the original salt lake brine. Brine evaporation promotes the formation of polyborate anions B3O3(OH)4-, B5O6(OH)4-, and B6O7(OH)62- and also disappearance of the B(OH)4- ion in brine with boron concentration of more than 11 g/L in B2O3. The pentaborate ion of B5O6(OH)4- was sensitive to the solution pH and found to be appeared under the pH value of 8.0. While the hexaborate ion of B6O7(OH)62- was observed more dependent on the electrolyte of magnesium chloride due to its special properties, such as promoting boron accumulation, lowering solution pH, and also the strong af?nity for water molecules, which is beneficial to the polymerization of borate ions in brine. The interaction mechanisms among polyborate anions during evaporation had also been proposed.  相似文献   

高质量增长背景下海洋经济发展的时空协调模式研究——基于环渤海地区地级市的实证   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

狄乾斌  於哲  徐礼祥 《地理科学》2019,39(10):1621-1630

海洋经济协调发展是科学评价区域海洋经济发展质量的重要依据。遵循城市与海洋经济协同的发展理念,构建环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度评价体系,运用复杂系统时空协调度评价模型,计算并分析2008~2016年环渤海城市海洋经济发展时空协调度,通过SaTScan软件分析其时空聚类区。研究结果显示：①海洋经济各系统发展水平中,社会系统呈大幅度分散上升趋势,经济系统、生态系统与综合系统呈小幅度集中与分散交替上升趋势;协调等级时序变化稳定型城市主要是大连、潍坊、青岛、烟台、威海。②协调度时空聚类区既有空间分异又有重叠交集,社会系统、综合系统、经济系统聚类区依次相互覆盖,生态系统与其它三系统既有重叠区也有独立区。③聚类区内部,社会系统最为稳定,综合系统、经济系统次之,生态系统最为薄弱。  相似文献   

A geospatial study of the drought impact on surface water reservoirs: study cases from Texas,USA     

Zachary Asbury 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(6):894-910

Satellite images have been used historically to measure and monitor fluctuations in the surface water reservoirs. This study integrates remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to investigate the impact of drought on 10 selected surface water reservoirs in San Angelo and Dallas, Texas. Oscillations in summer and winter months throughout the 2005–2016 period were assessed using multispectral images from Landsat-5, ?7, and ?8, and changes in the reservoirs were characterized and correlated against local climate data of each reservoir. For quantitative comparisons of the time-series measurements, a robust density slicing approach was employed to classify the range of values of the raster cells in the near-infrared band of Landsat images for each lake into three desired classes (deep water, shallow water, and dry area) based on the natural breaks inherent in the dataset. Statistical analysis shows that the overall accuracy of the classification is about 94%, which demonstrates the efficiency of the density slicer to accurately estimate surface water area changes from an individual Landsat band. Shrinkage in the surface water area over the study period reveals the concrete impact that the drought along with other factors have on the 10 selected lakes. The San Angelo lakes located in west central Texas experienced a nearly consistent pattern of change during most of the study period; whereas the Dallas lakes in northeast Texas followed the oscillating pattern of drought and correlated closely to the local conditions. Shockingly, the extreme drought caused complete vanishing of several lakes, and consequently Texas had to remove them from its recreational plans. Our new findings can certainly help with the water resource management in Texas and our study approach can be adapted for monitoring lake oscillations in other areas across the world. This geospatial study demonstrates the societal benefits from incorporating remote sensing and GIS in investigating geo-environmental problems associated with severe climate changes.  相似文献   

Dynamics of coastline changes in Mexico     

Valderrama-Landeros  Luis H.  Martell-Dubois  Raúl  Ressl  Rainer  Silva-Casarín  Rodolfo  Cruz-Ramírez  Cesia J.  Muñoz-Pérez  Juan J. 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(10):1637-1654

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The goal of our work was to locate and quantify changes that occurred in 66% of the Mexican coastline, based on four land cover maps generated by the Mexican...  相似文献   

晚第四纪MIS6以来柴达木盆地成盐作用对冰期气候的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈安东  郑绵平  宋高  王学锋  李洪普  韩光  袁文虎 《地质论评》2020,66(3):611-624

气候是控制柴达木盆地盐类沉积的主要因素之一,但是其作用机制尚待明确。作者以柴达木盆地察汗斯拉图盐湖的3个含盐剖面为研究对象,采用多接收电感耦合等离子质谱(MC-ICP-MS)铀系测年测定其沉积时代,并通过X射线粉晶衍射(XRD)分析测定其盐类矿物种类。铀系测年显示D18剖面石盐和芒硝层的沉积时代为13.1±2.0 ka BP～15.9±2.5 ka BP,其中芒硝沉积年代属于末次冰期MIS2晚期;MXK2剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为131.7±39.5 ka BP和158.3±10.8 ka BP,D12剖面芒硝层的沉积时代分别为166.6±20.2 ka BP和198.0±20.6 ka BP,可以对应于倒数第二次冰期MIS6。XRD分析确定了3个剖面的盐类矿物主要为芒硝、石盐和石膏。综合多个盐湖晚第四纪成盐数据,本文认为倒数第二次冰期MIS6和末次冰期MIS2是柴达木盆地晚第四纪重要的成盐期,冰期的冷干气候有利于石盐和芒硝等盐类沉积。柴达木盆地"冰期成盐"的根本原因,是由于冰期环境下盆地周边山体冰川规模的扩张以及干冷的冰期气候,共同造成了盐湖补给水量的减少。此外,晚第四纪MIS6和MIS2的冰期降温也是导致盆地中冷相盐类沉积的直接原因。  相似文献   

How changes of groundwater level affect the desert riparian forest ecosystem in the Ejina Oasis,Northwest China     

HaiYang Xi  JingTian Zhang  Qi Feng  Lu Zhang  JianHua Si  TengFei Yu 《寒旱区科学》2019,11(1):62-80

Groundwater is a key factor controlling the growth of vegetation in desert riparian systems. It is important to recognise how groundwater changes affect the riparian forest ecosystem. This information will not only help us to understand the ecological and hydrological process of the riparian forest but also provide support for ecological recovery of riparian forests and water-resources management of arid inland river basins. This study aims to estimate the suitability of the Water Vegetation Energy and Solute Modelling(WAVES) model to simulate the Ejina Desert riparian forest ecosystem changes,China, to assess effects of groundwater-depth change on the canopy leaf area index(LAI) and water budgets, and to ascertain the suitable groundwater depth for preserving the stability and structure of desert riparian forest. Results demonstrated that the WAVES model can simulate changes to ecological and hydrological processes. The annual mean water consumption of a Tamarix chinensis riparian forest was less than that of a Populus euphratica riparian forest, and the canopy LAI of the desert riparian forest should increase as groundwater depth decreases. Groundwater changes could significantly influence water budgets for T. chinensis and P. euphratica riparian forests and show the positive and negative effects on vegetation growth and water budgets of riparian forests. Maintaining the annual mean groundwater depth at around 1.7-2.7 m is critical for healthy riparian forest growth. This study highlights the importance of considering groundwater-change impacts on desert riparian vegetation and water-balance applications in ecological restoration and efficient water-resource management in the Heihe River Basin.  相似文献   

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Belt and Road Regions     

Shichang Kang  Wanqin Guo  Tonghua Wu  Xinyue Zhong  Rensheng Chen  Min Xu  Jinlei Chen  Ruimin Yang 《地球科学进展》2020,35(1):1-17

“Belt and Road” regions include Asia, Europe and eastern and northern Africa, with a wide spatial distribution. The cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes in the Belt and Road regions with global warming, and has an important impact on water resources, ecosystems and Arctic waterways in these regions. This article reviewed recent cryospheric changes and associated impacts on water resources in the Belt and Road regions during the last decades. The main cognitions are as follows: \mathrm{①} Most glaciers are shrinking and glacier mass balances are most negative, but there are regional differences in the changes of glaciers. \mathrm{②} Global temperature rise has resulted in permafrost degradation, including a rise in permafrost temperature and decreasing permafrost thickness as well as an increase in active layer thickness. \mathrm{③} There is a significant decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snow depth. Snow cover duration has shortened, the onset of snow cover has delayed, and the end of snow cover has advanced. However, there are still obvious regional differences in the changes of snow cover. \mathrm{④} Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness in summer, and multi-year sea ice has decreased，indicating the precipitous retreat of sea ice. The freeze-up date of some lakes has been delayed, the break-up date has advanced, and the ice cover duration of river/lake ice has significantly shortened. \mathrm{⑤} Glacial runoff has increased significantly in China. Snowmelt and permafrost degradation have also increased the basin runoff, which indicates the important impact of cryospheric changes on runoff. This study will provide a baseline and important scientific support for addressing climate change and regional sustainable development.  相似文献